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Prediction for CME (2025-10-12T14:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-12T14:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41710/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] CME seen to the NE in STEREO A COR2 only and likely not seen in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1 coronagraphs, possibly since it overlaps with a couple of preceding CMEs, including 2025-10-12T14:23Z CME. Its source could be the C9.6 flare in AR 4246 (N22W10) peaking at 2025-10-12T13:50Z and an associated eruption with dimming to the SE of this Active Region, best seen in STEREO A EUV 195 after 2025-10-12T13:30Z, also seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. The CME partially overlaps with the more northern (as seen in STEREO A COR2), 2025-10-12T14:23Z CME, which may be associated with the dimming to the NW of this Active Region after 2025-10-12T13:30Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-16T05:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 51013
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 Oct 2025, 1233UT
SIDC FORECAST
Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with 2 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an
M2.7 flare (SIDC Flare 5733), peaking on October 13 at 09:19 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 639 (NOAA Active Region 4246). This region was emerging quickly and was responsible for most of the flaring activity, including an M1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 5731), peaking on October 13 at 05:26 UTC. SIDC Sunspot group 621 (NOAA Active region 4248) also grew over the period and produced multiple C-class flares. This region was now also divided with a second numbered region assigned to the flux emergence to the east (SIDC sunspot 668, NOAA Active region 4250). Three small new regions were numbered: SIDC sunspot groups 644, 669 and 670 (NOAA Active regions 4252, 4250, 4251 and 4253, respectively). These regions were simple and mostly quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A dimming was observed on disk near SIDC Sunspot Group 639 related to SIDC Flare 5721 C9.6, with peak time 13:50 UTC. An associated Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 579) is visible to the north in
SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 14:12 UTC and seen in STEREO-A COR2 data from 14:23 UTC. This event is being analysed but initial analysis suggests this event is expected to impact Earth from late on October 15. Another dimming near SIDC Sunspot Group 639 (NOAA Active Region 4246) was observed around 05:10 UTC associated with the M1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 5731). Any associated CME will be analysed when coronagraph data become available.

Lead Time: 62.18 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2025-10-13T14:49Z

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